The North West MEP district...

Elects 8 MEPs using the d'Hondt method of party-list proportional representation.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Wes ... nstituency)


2014 Candidates and Results






2019 Candidates and Results
(Nine parties and two Independent candidates)

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South West England (European Parliament constituency)

Elects six MEPs using the d'Hondt method of party-list proportional representation.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Wes ... nstituency)



2014 Candidates and Results






2019 Candidates and Results
(Eight parties and three Independent candidates)




It's not possible to do precise predictions with an unknown turnout.... and "the d'Hondt method of party-list proportional representation calculation" is more mysterious than "The Duckworth Lewis" method in cricket

But ....in South West, It's complicated for Sargon. UKIP must win 2 seats if Sargon is to get in. In 2014 the Con party got 2 seats .. 450K votes (29%)? So Ukip may need about that this time?? But, as you say, Sargon is the "junior partner"... so it's up to the other guy (Lawrence Webb) to attract more than half the UKIP votes... Sargon's job is to get a few extra votes

But... in North West, 2014 election, the last seat awarded was based on 160,644 votes (Total 1,754,687 votes cast 9.2%)
IF turnout similar in 2019......Tommy may well require similar 9.2% (175,000 votes) to gain a seat in the North West.

------------------
Tommy Robinson runs for MEP (North West region)
Luke Reid
Published on Apr 26, 2019

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

LIVE! Ezra Levant on Tommy Robinson’s election campaign PLUS your questions & comments
Rebel Media
Streamed live 2 hours ago




Ezra flying in 13 Overseas Journalists.... to cover Tommy campaign (etc) properly

Ezra opines that he can not donate directly and "meddle" in UK politics... but he can facilitate some NOT FAKE journalism.

He needs to raise money... $30,000

Ezra Levant: Support Tommy Robinson for MEP
Rebel Media
Published on Apr 26, 2019




Tommy Robinson needs real reporters to cover his MEP campaign
https://rebeldonations.com/tommy-robins ... ext-trial/



https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1121826768086818816

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Twitter MEP FOLLOWERS Update
(Contest: can Tommy come from behind and pass Sargon?)

Tommy......Sargon
4,294........11.3K
4,841........11.5K
5,001........11.6K
5,718........11.8K

(Both accounts seem to be shut down?)

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Next stop..... Gibraltar

Obviously travel (air flight) will take some time.... Event scheduled for Saturday 3:00 pm





Looks like a nice spot.... when its a sunny day

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Dispatches from Gibraltar and a Response to Fabian Picardo
Sargon of Akkad
Published on Apr 26, 2019

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

British Politics in 2019
Sargon of Akkad
Published on Apr 26, 2019

I disavow my own jokes
Listen, Buzzfeed, it's a roast not a dick, don't take it so hard.

YT version is Kaput... switch to Bitchute
[bitchute]https://www.bitchute.com/video/ImMqW5zEtmA/[/bitchute]




REAL MEN DON'T RAPE..... ugly women

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Twitter crap continues....


https://twitter.com/MDeLaBroc/status/11 ... 0525217792



https://twitter.com/MDeLaBroc/status/11 ... 5177958403


Even if Sargon's team argue this point.... I would imagine that Sargon's other Twitter will wind up suspended?

Backworldsman
https://twitter.com/backworldsman1


ETA
Backworldsman account is toast now

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

#Gibraltar Debates: Is Labour the Victim of Dirty Dirty Smear Merchants?
Sargon of Akkad
Published on Apr 27, 2019

Answer: probably.
Also, on reflection I feel I went a bit harder on this guy than I should have done, so I just want to offer the lad an apology if he felt I did.

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Tommy Robinson MEP: The voice of the voiceless
React
Published on Apr 27, 2019

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Chaos UK: Tommy Robinson, Sargon of Akkad, and Change UK
Renaissance Horizon
Published on Apr 26, 2019

Can Tommy Robinson win a seat in the EU parliament?

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Tommy Robinson tops the poll in the North West.... I have a dream
Richard Inman
Published on Apr 26, 2019

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Tommy Robinson Will Be In Salford Manchester This Sunday 10am
(Venue TBA)


EVENT CALLED OFF
Tommy had to return home after somebody? turned up at his home... threatening his family



Tommy Robinson's new campaign leaflets

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

UKIPs Gerard Batten on BBC Breakfast on Brexit and Local/EU Parl election (28Apr19)
liarpoliticians2
Published on Apr 28, 2019




Usual BBC crap (mostly)... but did raise the interesting point that Gerard COULD lose his MEP seat himself. If polls are true and UKIP is only getting 3 or 4% of the vote, then they WILL NOT get seats in any district. Gerard in London probably needs UKIP to get 15% of the vote... and at this stage that seems UNLIKELY!! Gerard did indicate that the LEADER of a party should hold an elected seat, and so he would quit as leader.
However..... I don't think Gerard necessarily has to go. We should NOT be holding these elections anyway, and right now (or soon) Gerard would NOT have an MEP seat anyway. Ukip needs to go on and compete for proper MP seats in Westminster... Gerard would (I assume) have led the party into the next General Election if UK had left EU... and IMO he should still do that. He may not have an MEP seat... but by October(or sooner) NOBODY from UK should have an MEP seat anyway.



The latest Poll numbers...

UKIP at 5% are NOT going to gain any MEP seats


https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 7921825792

_________________
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___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Meanwhile ahead of MEP Drama are the Local elections...




The WESTMINSTER voting intention polls give some indication of voting intention in LOCAL elections (as well as a future General Election)


https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 0701445121


UKIP not doing well there either

as I have said before it is NUTS that Farage Party (BREXIT) rates in Westminster polls at all. They are NOT standing any candidates in the Locals... nor are they likely to take part in a General election. The public have clearly been conned by Farage's bid to get his own ass back in Brussels... with no other elections planned (or likely) for BREX.

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Iain Dale On Sunday With Nigel Farage: 28th April 2019 - LBC
LBC
Streamed live 10 hours ago





Nigel does push the logic of LEAVING THE EU..... but I have increasing doubts about what he can achieve.
The UK MEP elections are a farce... the best they can do is send a message to existing UK parties... especially the Conservatives.... that the public want to LEAVE (without a "deal")

Even Nigel gets bogged down on "Trade"... BREXIT is NOT about trade alone, or even Trade mostly... it is about SOVEREIGNTY..with that comes the ABILITY to negotiate Trade with Europe as well as the rest of the world. IF there are negative effects to trade with Europe, initially... then so be it, but with UK in charge of it's own destiny then that can be fixed.

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

YouGov Popularity ratings...


Tommy Robinson (12% positive)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ex ... y_Robinson

Gerard Batten (5% positive)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ex ... ard_Batten

Nigel Farage (24% positive)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ex ... gel_Farage

Carl Benjamin (NO DATA)
xxxxxxxx


Political Figures Popularity List
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

I would like to find polling of UK NW (Tommy Robinson included)

I asked the question in Comments at YouGov
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... x-28-lab-2

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Interesting that there is a VoteTommyRobinson Twitter..

Clearly run by a supporter... I wonder if Twitter will allow that even?




https://twitter.com/TommyVote/status/11 ... 2664958977

_________________
Do not go gentle into that good night.
___________ Rage, rage against the dying of the light