July 15, 2016 at 9:02 pm
Coup d’etat 101
Must do within the first hour
Seize the top leaders capable of defeating the coup. Failing that, have them holed up with no communications, under siege. Kill them if necessary.
Turkey: President, Prime Minister, Cabinet Ministers, and any leader of the Armed Forces that is not in on the coup.
July 15 Turkey score:
FAIL. No effort made to seize President, Prime Minister. Army Chief arrested not enough.
Incredibly, no effort made to arrest President, or shoot down his plane once he is airborne. Ditto for PM and Cabinet.
No effort made to jam communications. (Lesson from Yeltsin’s facing down the coup 1991). Yeltsin was able to call commanders he knew and got their support.
First few minutes:
Shut down all communications including airports, land, sea borders, not just social media like facebook, twitter, but also all internet and voice / wireless traffic in and out of Turkey. TV, Radio stations, cell phones, everything must be stopped. The only communications system that should work is the dedicated network for the plotters. All other military communications to likely opponents of coup in military must be cut.
July 15 Turkey score:
C- Social Media shut, as with TV and Radio mostly, but apparently phones etc. remain online.
Airport shut but other facilities, including communications by the US bases and other installations to the outside world remained on — allowing other groups to know what is going on, and intervene.
First 2 hours
Seize control of symbols of power, including Legislature, Courts, Presidential Palace, and key government buildings, and key police / intelligence installations.
Post seizure, troops must be prepared to defeat crowds — ideally with non-lethal weapons like fire hoses, riot control gases, etc.
July 15 Turkey Score: C- Only a few key points seized, no effort made to deal with anti coup civilians attacking troops.
First 4 hours
Special case for Turkey, Iran, and elsewhere in middle east.
All Mosques must be seized, mullahs arrested, and temporarily closed to prevent them from being a rallying point. (The lesson from Iranian revolution against Shah).
July 15 Turkey Score: FAIL No effort made.
Based on this assessment, likelihood of success low.
Turkey coup plotters are turkeys who can’t even pull off something routinely done in Egypt.