Midterm Wave Watcher
https://morningconsult.com/2018-midterm ... e-watcher/
AUGUST 2018
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| POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 http://randomtopics.org/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1982 |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Midterm Wave Watcher https://morningconsult.com/2018-midterm ... e-watcher/ AUGUST 2018
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
I see Quinnipiac has reared it's ugly head again with a D+14 Poll  The RCP average is now D+8.2 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html It seems to me that just in a general sense, the US public are split around 1/2 for each party, with (small) swings from party to party, and so any poll showing a large lead for either Party is..... WRONG! Poll results showing a D lead of 0 to say, 5 points seem to me to likely be accurate and it is a dubious technique to include "outlier" results D+11 - D+14 in calculating an average. In effect the "bad polls" are distorting what the "proper polls" are finding We'll see. And (of course) a nationwide "Generic" party vote is only an indicator. The seats won (or lost) in Congress will depend on LOCAL factors and local voting. For instance it will be no comfort to the DIMS if their "blue wave" vote is such that they win Congressional seats in CA and NY by huge margins, but they lose elsewhere by just a few hundred votes. Other reference https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/co ... lot-polls/ http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/T ... apsed/true |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Call me "paranoid"... but it seems to me that with the current (small) DECLINE in Dem lead in polls... the Fake Polls are not being done (or not reported). There has been no new poll for a few days, and the RCP Average now only includes 5 polls. I seem to recall that normally there are MORE frequent polls as an election draws closer? The RCP average has dropped to D+8.0  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html As I say ... just 5 polls in the average...Take out Qinnipiac D+14, and CNN D+10 and the average would be more like D +5  NOT A BLUE WAVE |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Fake Qinnipiac has dropped out of the polls used in RCP average. Current RCP average is D+7.4  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
As I predicted....  Poll companies look to be "cutting the crap" and posting more realistic results as the election draws closer, and their results are soon to be contrasted with reality. Quinnipiac latest is D+7 This is inline with other polls... as opposed to previous Fake Quinnipiac results around D+14 |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Midterm Wave Watcher https://morningconsult.com/2018-midterm ... e-watcher/ SEPTEMBER 2018 
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Trump, GOP Get A Big Kavanaugh Bounce — IBD/TIPP Poll https://www.investors.com/politics/trum ... -tip-poll/ Great numbers in all metrics. I have been following the Generic Congress Polls generally and this poll shows D+2 which is a far cry from recent silly claims of D+14 |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Just when you thought it was safe to believe polls..... Numbers like D+2, D+5.... an average of D+6.6 even with a silly Reuters D+12 (up to D+13) included.... Up pops a poll showing D+13  Guess who?...... CNN   https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
For Reference... Political Polls on Twitter https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls FYI Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... nal_ballot ETA Rasmussen Reports: TIE 45% each  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Battle for The House - "No Path to 218"...  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... gress.html Current House - 115th Congress 
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Battle for the Senate 2018  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
For Reference - Cook Political Reports If the mid-term election were held today, the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives. Cook Political Reports also predicts the Republicans will retain control of the Senate. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
FYI… The RCP Generic Congress poll average today is D+6.9% .. said to indicate a “blue wave” (Note: inflated by Reuters and CNN polls) On this date in 2016 RCP Average was D+6.2%…. the REAL election result was R+1.1% (a real red wave) Just sayin’ |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
It looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.... maybe even gain seats. Harder to get reliable data on Congress seats, but I find it hard to believe there is a surge of enthusiasm for DIMS in Congress? If there is a bit of republican enthusiasm to get out and vote R for the Senate.. I think it makes sense that those people will also vote R for Congress? |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
A guy can dream.... Republican Path to Senate Supermajority 60 Seats - 2018 Senate Prediction Midterm Elections Political Forecast - Election Predictions Published on Oct 13, 2018 |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
As U.S. Polls Tighten, The Signs All Point To Hillary October 15, 2018 / Tom Luongo In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Republicans are going to remain in control of both the House and the Senate in a couple of weeks. Since their flawless victory over the Democrats in the fight to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the Republican base is more energized now than at any point since November 2016. They say pictures are worth a thousand words… so, here’s one.  The Redcoats are Coming, The Redcoats are Coming! And if you don’t think the person that is most worried about this picture is Hillary Clinton, then you haven’t been paying attention. But, to get to Hillary, I’ll have to connect a few dots....... [....] Containment around Hillary’s crimes has been breached and all that’s left now is for the people close to her to start turning on each other. The mid-terms were their last, best hope for a stay of execution. ...more at link https://tomluongo.me/2018/10/15/polls-t ... t-hillary/ |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
REAL INDIAN V FAKE INDIAN…. A Chat With VA Shiva as Midterms Loom Styxhexenhammer666 Streamed live 2 hours ago 
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Red Wave...  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
Remember Polls before Election day 2016.....  GET OUT AND VOTE.. MAGA I wonder if the fake polls crowd have miscalculated? Seeing polls now and all pundits saying "The Dims will take the house" is to me an INSPIRATION to encourage people to get out and VOTE REPUBLICAN to defeat that "prediction". I do concede that it is difficult to do a poll.. to get a representative sample of all critical factors, and so I could excuse polls being a bit "off" in predicting the real results...Hence it makes sense to "average" several polls and so "average out" any random errors..... BUT... the fact that the error is ALWAYS in one direction (Pro Dims) indicates a Dim bias.. either a deliberate PLOT or perhaps simply "experimenter effect" where the poll supervisors and staff have a bias that skews the results. On top of that there are pundits and predictors who clearly ARE biased and selectively report the already biased polls. It is a shame... I do not want to be a "Debbie Downer" and report what I see reported by others.. I want to be a cheerleader encouraging people to Vote. So... let these "bad polls" be an inspiration... GET OUT AND VOTE.. MAGA As a bonus.... make Liberal Media Hacks CRY on election night. |
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| Author: | Rumpole [ Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: POLLS AND PREDICTIONS - Mid Terms 2018 |
My prediction for the midterms... The DIMS will win the "Popular vote" (by 3 - 4%) But... as with Crooked Hillary.. it wont count for much The Republicans will gain seats in the Senate and Retain the House! AS A BONUS... the MSM will have an election night meltdown (again) and the leftist masses will go bananas... (beware: they will be violent) |
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